In thinking about how your organization develops its strategy, the Baldrige Criteria raise two issues that are often get less attention than they deserve: (1) the information and data you collect, analyze, and report that informs your priorities and decisions and (2) the longer-term planning horizon and related performance projections.

Futurist Jamais Cascio addresses these two issues in a process he described in “Futures Thinking: The Basics,” for Fast Company (September 17, 2009). His process has five steps:

1. Asking the Question. “The exploration into different possible futures comes from a narrow concern,” writes Cascio. He recommends asking strategic questions in terms of dilemmas, not problems, because you will come up with different possible responses, which you can evaluate and choose as circumstances change, rather than searching for one perfect solution. Pick a longer-term time horizon that is relevant for your organization such as after planned regulations take effect, when resource availability or pricing will change, when a demographic shift occurs (such as Baby Boomers retiring), or when there is a change in political leadership. Reconsider your question throughout the process by asking if it is still the right question.
2. Scanning the World. Baldrige asks how you consider your organization’s strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats; early indications of major shifts in technology, markets, products, customer preferences, competition, or the regulatory environment; long-term organizational sustainability; and your ability to execute the strategic plan. Organizations need systematic processes for collecting, analyzing, communicating, and evaluating this information during their strategic planning processes. Cascio suggests bringing new perspectives and viewpoints into the process, noting that “most good futures work is done collaboratively.”
3. Mapping the Possibilities. “Remember that the futures you come up with will almost certainly be wrong—the goal is to be wrong in a way that offers insights into present choices,” writes Cascio. He offers four “futures archetypes,” similar to those used in scenario planning, upon which to build more specific stories:
   - The future is what I expect.
   - The future is better than I expect.
   - The future is worse than I expect.
   - The future is weirder than I expect.
   Use the information gathered when scanning the world to write a page or two about what it would be like in the world at the time horizon you chose for each of these archetypes.
4. Asking the Next Question. Ask your original question in each of these four worlds. What could your organization do to achieve positive results or, at the least, to minimize risks, in each of the possible worlds? And what happens then?
5. Thinking It Through. “Finally,” Cascio adds, “ask yourself how you get from today to the futures you’ve laid out. What kinds of choices, what kinds of changes do you need to make now to lead to the outcomes you’d prefer?”

In my experience, organizations tend to be very good at one-year plans and less effective the farther into the future they look. The Baldrige Criteria and processes like Cascio’s futures thinking can help your organization take a more systematic approach to longer-term planning.

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